Trade Strategy 9.9.21

Markets

Another day of losses may be in store for the U.S. stock market, with futures contracts tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling another 0.3% overnight. The major averages have slid over the last three consecutive trading days as investors question valuations amid worries about Fed tapering and the Delta variant. Recovery optimism was also thrown a curveball last Friday, with a jobs report that showed a sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the U.S

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories

1:05 Fed’s Evans: “Exploring Career Pathways in Economic and Related Fields”
11:05 Fed’s Daly: “The Economic Gains From Equity”
12:00 Fed’s Kaplan: “Next Phase: The Economic Outlook”
1:00 PM Fed’s Bowman: “Community Bank Access to Innovation”
2:00 PM Fed’s Williams: “Racism and the Economy: Focus on Health”
4:00 PM Fed’s Rosengren, Fed’s Kashkari and Fed’s Kaplan participates in President Panel
4:25 PM Fed’s Rosengren: “Racism and the Economy: Focus on Health”

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Textbook CD1 unfolded, as price continued its declined which began on CD3. Range was 32.75 handles on 1.455M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for some ‘back n fill’ price to absorb recent activity. Overnight CD1 Low (4492) held test and has stabilized near 4500. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4500, initially targets 4515 – 4522 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4500, initially targets 4482 – 4475 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4416       PVA Low Edge = 4502         Prior POC = 4501

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4539; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4433; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4524; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4526; 10 Day Average True Range  63; VIX: 19

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently trading back within prior value during overnight activity following yesterday’s wide range decline. Prior range was 167 handles on 550k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15634       PVA Low Edge = 15560      Prior POC = 15606

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15585, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15606 – 15623 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15585, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15543 – 15524 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15657; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15480; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15651; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15714; 10 Day Average True Range: 119; VIX: 19

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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