Markets
The market has had a wild first two months to the year, firing on all cylinders in January and paring some gains in February, only to resume its upward ascent last week. Investors are now sizing up their outlooks as trading begins for the first full week of March, with several upcoming catalysts that have the potential to sway market direction.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell will head to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony, ahead of the February Jobs Report released on Friday. Don’t forget the latest Consumer Price Index that will be published next week, as well as Fed’s March policy meeting (and quarterly rate projections) that will come at the end of the month.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
10:00 Factory Orders
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets finished the prior week with a Positive 3-Day Cycle, pushing up to weekly highs. Prior day’s range was 79 handles on 1.560M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3993. Our expectation is for relatively shallow pullback in price given the strong week ending trend up. Overnight trade is light volume and narrow range. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4050, initially targets 4065 – 4070 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4050, initially targets 4035 – 4030 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4053 PVA Low Edge = 4012 Prior POC = 4048
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4100; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4003; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3986; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4115; 10 Day Average True Range 59; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 12087. Our expectation is for relatively shallow pullback in price given the strong week ending trend up. Overnight trade is light volume and narrow range. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12300, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12365– 12370 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12300, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12260 – 12240 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12267 PVA Low Edge = 12065 Prior POC = 12195
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12511; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12142; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12077; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12634; 10 Day Average True Range: 235; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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