Equities gained traction in the middle of session on Thursday following comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said the central bank could be in a position to pause rate hikes this summer. Major U.S. equity averages finished higher, allowing the S&P 500 (SP500) and Nasdaq (COMP.IND) to halt a two-session slide.
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index
11:00 Fed’s Logan Speech
11:45 Fed’s Bostic Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM Fed’s Bowman Speech
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price oscillated during the morning session and then exploded higher when once the gap filled. The catalyst appears to have been some positive FED Speak (Bostic) on interest rates. Prior range was 70 handles on 1.777M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle Statistic is firmly in-place as price is extending yesterday’s breakout above prior high. There remains room to fulfill the final Cycle Target (4013) should the momentum continue during RTH. We’ll mark 3975 as “Key Pivot” Line in the Sand for today. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3975, initially targets 4005 – 4015 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3975, initially targets 3955 – 3950 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3968 PVA Low Edge = 3925 Prior POC = 3946
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 432; LOD ATR Range Projection: 343; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3970; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4013; 10 Day Average True Range 59; VIX: 19
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Three-Day Cycle Statistic is firmly in-place as price is extending yesterday’s breakout above prior high. There remains room to fulfill the final Cycle Target (12280) should the momentum continue during RTH. We’ll mark 12012 as “Key Pivot” Line in the Sand for today. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12012, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12150– 12170 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12012, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11950 – 11925 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11955 PVA Low Edge = 11837 Prior POC = 11908
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12249; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11886; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12030; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12280; 10 Day Average True Range: 247; VIX: 19
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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