Headlines from the fixed income world are rattling equity investors as the yield on the 10-year Treasury (US10Y) topped 4.00% for the first time since November. The 2-year yield (US2Y) also rose 2 basis points to 4.91% on Wednesday, hitting a new post-2007 high.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Productivity and Costs
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:00 PM Fed’s Waller: Economic Outlook
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 3943. Prior range was 48 handles on 1.972M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent selling activity. Price has traded as low as TargetMaster Breakdown Level 1 Zone (3932 – 3927) during overnight activity, but has since recovered back to CD1 Low (3943). We will mark this level as today’s Line-in-Sand. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3943, initially targets 3955 – 3965 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3943, initially targets 3930 – 3925 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3968 PVA Low Edge = 3950 Prior POC = 3955
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3981; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3909; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3980; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4013; 10 Day Average True Range 69; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 11925. Prior range was 217 handles on 750k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent selling activity. Price has traded as low as TargetMaster Breakdown Level 1 Zone (11860 – 11850) during overnight activity, but has since recovered back to near CD1 Low (11925). We will mark this level as today’s Line-in-Sand. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11925, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11960– 11970 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11925, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11860 – 11850 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12028 PVA Low Edge = 11944 Prior POC = 11961
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12066; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11768; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12063; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12280; 10 Day Average True Range: 256; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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