Morning Session:

The day began with the fulfillment of initial upside targets in both the ES and NQ markets. ES hit its 5830 target, while NQ reached 20400. PTGDavid noted that as long as ES held above 5815 and NQ above 20335, further bullish continuation could be expected toward higher resistance zones.

As the morning progressed, price action in both indices began oscillating around VWAP, creating a period of non-directional trade.

During this time, crude oil (CL) presented a short trigger based on the Opening Price Range (OPR), which led to the successful completion of multiple downside targets. This move was carefully tracked, with PTGDavid noting each filled target along the way.

There was also an ongoing discussion about the market’s evolving rhythm. PTGDavid observed that market participants were shifting price behavior to keep traders on edge, remarking on the importance of staying adaptable.

He expressed a preference for higher volatility environments, which offer greater trading opportunities compared to slow, grinding price action that can be challenging to navigate.

Midday & Afternoon Session:

Following a brief midday break, PTGDavid returned to the market, noting that price had remained relatively unchanged, hovering around VWAP. He pointed out that price held near the Initial Balance (IB) low, suggesting a potential area for decision-making. However, he acknowledged that the market was not offering clean opportunities at that moment, reinforcing the need for patience.

A key discussion emerged around the VIX, which had dropped to 17—back to historical norms. PTGDavid and other traders debated ideal volatility levels, with some favoring a VIX range of 25-30 as the “sweet spot” for trading. He emphasized that in lower volatility environments, traders need to adjust their expectations and adapt their price targets accordingly.

Closing Session & MOC Dynamics:

Heading into the final stretch of the trading day, PTGDavid maintained a neutral positioning at 3:30 PM, citing a lack of an edge with prices sitting at mid-VWAP. However, the Market on Close (MOC) order imbalance data revealed a notable $644M sell-side imbalance. Despite this, bullish traders continued to absorb selling pressure, keeping price elevated into the close.

PTGDavid provided real-time commentary, observing how buyers were stepping in aggressively, refusing to concede ground to sellers. He humorously compared the market action to a Hoover vacuum, absorbing all available liquidity. This resilience in the face of a sell imbalance underscored the importance of watching order flow rather than assuming that imbalances will always lead to directional moves.

The session wrapped up with a final note on trading psychology. PTGDavid echoed Isabel, a trading psychology expert, who emphasized “that patience is not just a virtue but an edge in trading. Knowing when to engage and when to sit out is a skill that separates successful traders from those who overtrade.”

He left traders with a personal mantra: “It is better to be patient than BE THE PATIENT.”

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Educational Takeaways:

• Key Levels & Confirmation: Identifying and respecting key levels such as VWAP, Initial Balance, and Opening Price Ranges can provide structured trade opportunities.

• Adapting to Volatility: Different market environments require different approaches—high volatility offers wider ranges, while low volatility necessitates adjusted targets and expectations.

• Order Flow & Absorption: Large MOC imbalances don’t always lead to immediate price movement in their expected direction. Watching how the market absorbs such imbalances is crucial.

• Patience as a Trading Edge: Sitting out during unclear conditions can be just as valuable as executing trades. Waiting for high-probability setups is a hallmark of disciplined trading.