Pre-Market Overview (7:25 AM – 8:45 AM)
The overnight session remained quiet and narrow, reflective of traders entering a holding pattern ahead of the anticipated FOMC announcement. Cycle Day 3 commenced with a Line in the Sand (LIS) at 5670, and price action began to drift lower, targeting the initial 5655–5645 support zone.
Market tone remained cautious, underscored by the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 99% probability of no rate change.
Morning Session (9:30 AM – 10:15 AM)
As volume picked up post-open, traders observed a tight trading range, with an initial sandbox defined between 5630 and 5650.
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Bulls’ Objective: Clear & Convert (C&C) the 5650–55 zone to unlock a potential extension toward 5670–75.
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Bears’ Objective: Defend overhead resistance and drive the market below 5630 to confirm downside momentum.
Notably, Crude Oil (CL) provided a clean short opportunity out of the Open Range setup, achieving two targets with a trailing stop hit.
Midday Transition (11:00 AM – 12:30 PM)
Bearish momentum intensified mid-session as bulls failed to sustain upward progress. A decisive shift occurred:
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Sell-side lean favored on failed bounces.
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OPR Mid at 5638 was identified as a key pivot — without a bullish reclaim, bears maintained control.
David noted timely stop-outs and suggested traders consider tactical short entries on retracements.
FOMC Reaction & Volatility Surge (1:45 PM – 3:00 PM)
The long-awaited FOMC announcement prompted a wave of volatility:
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Despite the anticipated no-change decision, Fed Chair Powell’s commentary, heavily laced with the word “uncertainty,” drove erratic intraday swings.
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Trader sentiment turned humorous, as repeated references to “uncertainty” became a running theme in chat.
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Price responded with sharp moves but eventually became anchored near VWAP, reflecting indecision and digestion of the Fed’s vague forward guidance.
Late-Day Flow & Closing Remarks (3:00 PM – 3:58 PM)
Heading into the close:
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A notable $2.7B MOC Sell Imbalance was absorbed, leading to a Buy Side Lean into the final minutes.
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The day satisfied the positive Cycle Day 3 statistic.
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With fresh positioning expected, Cycle Day 1 tomorrow may offer a “dip and rip” opportunity, pending early session structure.
Educational Takeaway
“Cycle Context + Real-Time Market Structure = Tactical Edge”
PTGDavid’s commentary illustrates the power of aligning macro catalysts (like the Fed) with microstructure awareness. Identifying key levels (like OPR Mid or LIS) and adapting based on price behavior (e.g., failed reclaims or acceptance/rejection of zones) allowed traders to stay grounded despite headline-driven volatility. Recognizing and reacting to shifts in market tone—especially during known event risks—remains a core skill for day traders seeking consistency.