PTGDavid’s commentary for Monday 9/30/24 provided an in-depth analysis of the day’s market activity, centered around the significant impact of the JPM Collar roll and broader macroeconomic influences.

Key highlights include:

1. JPM Collar Roll & Volatility: The roll of JPMorgan’s options collar is expected to reduce the positive gamma that has pinned SPX in a tight range, signaling an increase in volatility. This shift could lead to expanded price movements as the market becomes unpinned from the 5700-5750 range.
2. Intraday Price Action: Early in the session, price action was quiet and range-bound between 5780-5790. Bulls defended the 5782 Cycle Day 1 low, with attempts to break above 5790. However, limited volume restrained the breakout. Midday saw a sneaky breakout above 5790, with a pullback offering brief long entry opportunities.
3. Fed Commentary Influence: Remarks by Fed Chair Powell, including the discussion of moving to a neutral policy stance “over time” and the absence of urgency in cutting rates, caused a temporary dip in price, providing an excellent long opportunity for the nimble trader.
4. End-of-Session Dynamics: As the day progressed, bulls pushed for a higher close, aiming to break the 5800 level and achieve a “window-dressing” effect ahead of quarter-end. This strategy successfully played out, with price reaching key targets at 5806 (JPM Collar 5750 SPX strike), 5810, and 5815 as per the Daily Trade Strategy posted to subscribers last evening.
5. Market Structure: Despite low volume, the overall structure remained positive as long as price held above 5782. Bulls aimed to clear and convert 5790 into support, eventually leading to the fulfillment of higher targets. The day ended with a notable MOC (Market on Close) buy imbalance of $2.6 billion, indicating strong buying interest.

In summary, PTGDavid’s analysis highlighted the importance of the JPM Collar roll in driving volatility, with bulls achieving key targets in a low-volume environment. The commentary emphasized the need for sustained price acceptance above 5795 to maintain upside momentum heading into the next session.