Trade Strategy 1.3.20

Markets

A 400-point opening decline is in store for the DJIA after the U.S. took out one of the most senior and revered generals in Iran, Qassem Soleimani (top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Mohandes was also killed). Oil is moving in the opposite direction amid supply disruption fears, with crude futures ahead by 4% to $63.61/bbl, while safe haven gold is up 1.5% to $1551/oz to its highest level in almost four months. 

Crude prices “will likely hold” around $70 a barrel, “but could make a run at $80 if the conflict spreads to the oil fields of southern Iraq or if Iranian harassment of commercial shipping intensifies,” analysts at Eurasia Group wrote in a research note.

In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -0.1%. China -0.3%. India -0.4%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.5%. Paris -0.5%. Frankfurt -1.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.4%. S&P -1.5%. Nasdaq -1.7%. Crude +4% to $63.61. Gold +1.5% to $1551. Bitcoin +2.5% to $7314.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -7 bps to 1.71%

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:05 Fed’s Barkin: ”Is a Recession Around the Corner?”
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:15 PM Fed’s Evans: “Women in Central Banking”
1:15 PM Fed’s Brainard: “Women in Central Banking”
2:00 PM FOMC minutes

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 3239.00. Average Range for CD1 is 27.00 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%

****BREAKING**** Price has FULFILLED Cycle Day 1 Extreme Range Low Target of 3221 during Globex Session following reports of Iran’s General death in US Airstrikes!

CD1 Range High = 3247.00       CD1 Range Low = 3220.00         CD1 Range Avg = 27.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 3232, THEN initial upside targets 3242 – 3252 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 3232, THEN initial downside targets 3220 – 3215 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3247.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3220.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3236.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3257.00; 10 Day Average True Range 19.70; VIX: 15.25

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 8825 (FULFILLED & EXCEEDED). Average Range for CD1 is 95.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%

CD1 Range High =8834.00           CD1 Range Low = 8751.00          CD1 Range Avg = 95.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 8782, THEN initial upside targets 8810 – 8824 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 8782, THEN initial downside targets 8738 – 8721 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 8842.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8738.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8782.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 8848.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 78.75; VIX: 15.25

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN