Trade Strategy 10.30.18

Markets
 
As the S&P 500 closed in the red for three-quarters of October’s trading sessions so far, the current narrative has been bleak: Q3 earnings season is a flop for markets. Reports from General Electric (NYSE:GE) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) today will kick off the last big week for quarterly results, though U.S. stock index futures are still weary after the S&P 500 closed yesterday in correction territory. With profits still set to rise by more than 20% for the third straight quarter, could equities get a much-needed lift?
 
In Asia, Japan +1.4%. Hong Kong -0.9%. China +1%. India -0.5%
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris -0.4%. Frankfurt -0.3%
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.2%. Crude -0.8% to $66.51. Gold -0.5% to $1222.10. Bitcoin % to $.. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 3.12%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
3:00 PM Farm Prices

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link Click this link to view:
 

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2678.25. Average Range for CD1 is 27.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

CD1 Range High = 2663.50        CD1 Range Low = 2636.75         CD1 Range Avg = 27.50 

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2655, THEN upside targets 2663.25 – 2668.75 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Price will also need to convert this zone to upper support for further upside measuring 2678.25 – 2684.50 CD1 Penetration Levels.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2655, THEN downside targets 2636.75 and IF violated and converted to lower resistance, THEN further downside measures 2628 – 2624 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2704.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2596.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2666.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2663.00; 10 Day Average True Range 69.00; VIX: 24.42

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 6881.00. Average Range for CD1 is 108.00 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

CD1 Range High = 6810.00          CD1 Range Low = 6744.00          CD1 Range Avg = 108.00

Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 6765, THEN upside targets 6810, followed by 6839.25 – 6864.25 3 Day Central Pivot Zone.

Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 6755, THEN downside targets 6702 – 6688 zone followed by 6660 — 6640 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 6959.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 6538.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 6851.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 6810.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 257.00; VIX: 24.42

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN