Trade Strategy 4.30.20

Markets

S&P 500 is up more than 13% for April, the index’s biggest monthly increase since 1974, while futures extended the gains ahead of today’s session. Optimism was driven by positive results from Gilead’s (NASDAQ:GILD) remdesivir trial, which could help speed recovery from COVID-19, as well as strong earnings from Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) that put the Nasdaq Composite on track to erase losses for the year.

The Fed further pledged to use “its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time” and the news was enough to override data showing the U.S. economy had logged its worst quarterly performance since 2009

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

US Futures Markets are trading “mixed” ahead of the RTH opening bell.

Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds

Jobless claims data is set to grow in the millions this morning, with a consensus forecast of 3.5M filings last week to take the total figure over the past six-week period to at least 30M. 

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
3:00 Farm Prices
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued this cycle’s rally fulfilling upside objectives as price closes out strong monthly performance.

Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price has fulfilled Positive Cycle Statistics but has not expanded beyond prior close (2858.50). We’ll mark today as a “wild-card” for direction, as price could “back n fill” to absorb recent gains. Bulls only need to hold recent gains rather than continue to expand the upside.

PVA High Edge = 2945       PVA Low Edge = 2913         Prior POC = 2930

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2930, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2945 – 2950 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2930, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2915 – 2910 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3000; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2890; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2885; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2976; 10 Day Average True Range  73; VIX: 32

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has fulfilled cycle objective (9020) with positive cycle statistic. Currently price is trading below prior close and as such we will mark today as a “wild-card” with anticipation for absorption of recent rally gains.

PVA High Edge = 9014           PVA Low Edge = 8856         Prior POC = 8924

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9050, THEN initial upside estimate targets 9070 – 9080 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9050, THEN initial downside estimate targets 9030 – 9020 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 9316; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8867; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8857; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9020; 10 Day Average True Range: 246; VIX: 32

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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