Trade Strategy 6.19.19

Markets

Episode 4 of FOMC Season 2019 airs this afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET) and it looks like the Fed is backed into a corner. A failure now to suggest a rate cut later this year – or a pivot back to even a neutral stance – could cause a violent selloff by markets, but if Jerome Powell does flag the plans, he will be accused of caving to President Trump, who has been relentless in excoriating the Fed and demanded that it reverse rate hikes made last year. More drama? Asked by reporters outside the White House yesterday if he wanted to demote Powell, Trump said “let’s see what he does.”

U.S. equity index futures entered a holding pattern overnight, steadying before the conclusion of today’s crucial Fed meeting against a backdrop of trade tensions, conflicting data signals and growing worries about the economy.

In Asia, Japan +1.8%. Hong Kong +2.6%. China +1%. India +0.2%. 
In Europe, at midday, London -0.3%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt flat. 
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.1% to $54.08. Gold -0.3% to $1346.50. Bitcoin -1.1% to $9137. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 2.09%

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/author/wall-street-breakfast#regular_articles

Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:00MBA Mortgage Applications
10:30EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PMFOMC Announcement
2:00 PMFOMC Forecast
2:00 PMChairman Press Conference

***PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price action is relatively quiet during overnight trade following an explosive move higher in prior Cycle Day 1 Session. It’s Fed Day so trade is expected to be limited until the announcement.

CD2 Range High = 2945.50       CD2 Range Low = 2906.00    CD2 Range Avg = 29.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2926, THEN initial upside potential targets 2936, followed by 2946 – 2948 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2926, THEN initial downside objective targets 2916 – 2913 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2019 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2948.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2904.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2904.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2927.00; 10 Day Average True Range 26.46: VIX: 15.00

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Objectives and is currently trading quietly pre-RTH. With Fed Day on tap, trading is expected to be limited and quiet ahead of announcement.

CD2 Range High = 7722.00          CD2 Range Low = 7634.00          CD2 Range Avg = 105.25

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7680, THEN initial upside potential targets 7708 – 7722 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7680, THEN initial downside objective targets 7645 – 7628 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2019 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7767.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7587.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7570.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7661.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 104.13; VIX: 15.00

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN