Markets
Stocks notched another round of fresh highs on Wednesday, before taking a breather in the overnight session. Meanwhile, U.S. equity futures are staying close to the flatline this morning as the highly anticipated Fed economic symposium kicks off in Jackson Hole. Central bankers could provide some clarity on the latest monetary policy at the event, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell slated to make remarks on Friday.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium
8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Corporate profits
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $62B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
\https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Statistic as well as probing just shy of the 4500 (ES) futures level. SPX has already topped the 4500 cash level. Prior Range was 21.75 handles on 756k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4470. First day of virtual J-Hole, as market participants are in a holding pattern, awaiting commentaries. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4480, initially targets 4495 – 4500 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4480, initially targets 4470 – 4465 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4497 PVA Low Edge = 4486 Prior POC = 4495
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4516; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4456; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4480; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4510; 10 Day Average True Range 36; VIX: 17.30
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 15266. Prior Range was 64 handles on 402k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15372 PVA Low Edge = 15347 Prior POC = 15363
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15308, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15346 – 15363 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15308, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15264 – 15244 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15462; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15200; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15323; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15524; 10 Day Average True Range: 167; VIX: 17.30
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN