In Europe, at midday, London +0.01%. Paris -0.39%. Frankfurt -0.53%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.10%. S&P -0.03%. Nasdaq +0.11%. Crude +0.98%to $72.27. Gold +0.07% to $1,199.90. Bitcoin -0.16% to $6,465.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -1.7bps to 3.044%.
8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 International trade in goods
8:30 Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 Corporate profits
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $31B, 7-Year Note Auction
3:00 PM Farm Prices
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM Jerome Powell Speech
S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…For a while yesterday, it did not look as though we would get a normal Cycle Day 1 decline, as price was firm and actually rose into Fed announcement. Sharp reversal during presser accelerated as effects of $3.1 Billion Market on Close Sell Imbalance hit the price down fulfilling 2911.50 Average Cycle Day 1 Decline and 1 tic off settlement price of 2911.75. AMAZING!
Overnight, trade is rebounding slightly from deep oversold condition. “Harry” is stuck long above 2920 handle, so recovery attempt must be strong enough to squelch any further weakness, otherwise price may revisit Cycle Day 1 Low (2907.50) for surety.
CD2 Range High = 2930.00 CD2 Range Low = 2893.50 CD2 Range Avg = 19.00
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 2912, THEN upside recovery targets 2916 – 2918.75 zone. Key over under will be marked at 2918 handle on any recovery attempt.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 2918 handle on any recovery attempt will be sell opportunity. Further weakness below 2912 opens door to deeper downside targeting retest of 2901.50 Cycle Day 1 Low. Extreme Zone measures 2901.50 — 2897.50 cycle range low.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2926.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2897.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2907.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2922.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2934.50; 10 Day Average True Range 18.75; VIX: 12.58
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…In typical style NAZ whipped around like a dog shaking a rag-doll. Despite the volatility, price is still holding above rising 3 Day Central Pivot Zone marked between 7588 – 7578 zone which is marked as “key support”. Price will need to hold above and recover 7612 – 7622.50 zone “key resistance” for further gains.
CD2 Range High = 7638.00 CD2 Range Low = 7532.00 CD2 Range Avg = 83.50
Scenario 1: IF price holds bid above 7588, THEN upside targets 7612 – 7623 VAH zone.
Scenario 2: IF price holds offer below 7588, THEN downside targets retest of 7577.50 CD1 Low. Violation and conversion opens door to deeper levels measuring 7566.75 – 7556 STAT-X.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7670.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7531.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7577.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7583.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7641.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 84.50; VIX: 12.58
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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