Markets
By the numbers: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase about 200K in October, down from the 263K jobs added in September, but still a strong level of growth. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5% in September, a 50-year low, while the labor force participation rate is projected to be unchanged at 62.3%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% from September’s $32.46, bringing the average hourly wage to $32.56 in October (on a Y/Y basis, wages would increase 4.7%, slowing from the 5.0% increase in September).
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Recovery back to the CD1 Low was too much of an uphill battle for the Bulls, hence a Failed 3-Day Cycle. Prior range was 78 handles on 1.824M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3696. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight/pre-RTH activity has price trading higher to 3750, which is Y-VAH and expected initial resistance. Initial Sandbox Zone (3700 – 3750). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3725, initially targets 3750 – 3765 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3725, initially targets 3705 – 3700 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3750 PVA Low Edge = 3726 Prior POC = 3747
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3798; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3680; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3810; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3822; 10 Day Average True Range 98; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11646. Prior range was 288 handles on 692k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 10710, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10810– 10845 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 10710, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10646 – 10614 zone.
PVA High Edge = 10854 PVA Low Edge = 10754 Prior POC = 10801
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11014; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11510; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11108; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11080; 10 Day Average True Range: 394; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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