By the numbers: Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase about 200K in October, down from the 263K jobs added in September, but still a strong level of growth. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 3.6% from 3.5% in September, a 50-year low, while the labor force participation rate is projected to be unchanged at 62.3%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% from September’s $32.46, bringing the average hourly wage to $32.56 in October (on a Y/Y basis, wages would increase 4.7%, slowing from the 5.0% increase in September).
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Recovery back to the CD1 Low was too much of an uphill battle for the Bulls, hence a Failed 3-Day Cycle. Prior range was 78 handles on 1.824M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3696. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight/pre-RTH activity has price trading higher to 3750, which is Y-VAH and expected initial resistance. Initial Sandbox Zone (3700 – 3750). As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3725, initially targets 3750 – 3765 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3725, initially targets 3705 – 3700 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3750 PVA Low Edge = 3726 Prior POC = 3747
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3798; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3680; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3810; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3822; 10 Day Average True Range 98; VIX: 25
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11646. Prior range was 288 handles on 692k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 10710, THEN initial upside estimate targets 10810– 10845 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 10710, THEN initial downside estimate targets 10646 – 10614 zone.
PVA High Edge = 10854 PVA Low Edge = 10754 Prior POC = 10801
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11014; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11510; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11108; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11080; 10 Day Average True Range: 394; VIX: 25
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN