Trade Strategy 12.23.25

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: “Holiday Drift: Thin to Win”

From the opening bell, it was clear this session wasn’t here to argue — it was here to glide.

gap-up, outside-bar open immediately tilted the field in favor of the Bulls, and once 6910 held firm, the path of least resistance stayed higher all day. Early continuation longs 6915–6919 delivered clean, repeatable follow-through, rewarding patience and alignment rather than bravado.

For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.22.25 link.


Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Santa Rally?

The “official” Santa Claus Rally begins on December 24.

It covers the last 5 trading days of December + the first 2 of January.

$SPX was up 77% of the time.

The last 2 were negative, but there has never been a third straight down Santa Claus Rally.

Data provided by @SubuTrade


🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus

Scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

🟢 Bull Case

  • Hold north of 6925 targets 6935…6945…6957


🔴 Bear Case

  • Hold south of 6925 targets 6915…6910…6905

PVA High Edge = 6935    PVA Low Edge = 6921         Prior POC = 6930


⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.


   ESH

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Post OPEX Gap Up

The largest OPEX on record exited the building and, true to form, left behind a residual bullish hangover. That carried price higher right out of the gate with a clean gap up, followed by a steady, disciplined bid that never really lost its footing.

Price did exactly what it was supposed to do — tagged and fulfilled the upper Money Box, then spent the balance of the session politely minding its manners. An intraday successful test of the Open Range Low reinforced the tone: this wasn’t panic buying or emotional chasing… it was orderly consolidation.

And yes — for “NAZ the TAZ” — this qualified as a remarkably well-behaved session. Low volatility, minimal theatrics, and very little interest in causing emotional damage.

With 2025 essentially in the books, the market has shifted gears into the annual Year-End Follies phase — thin participation, holiday distractions, and decision-making influenced more by eggnog than economic conviction.

At this point, traders aren’t trying to be heroes.
They’re running the clock, protecting P&L, and waiting for the final bell to put a bow on the year.

Capital preservation > fireworks.


 

Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

Transition into Cycle Day 2: Same Movie, Same Popcorn

Cycle Day 2 does what Cycle Day 2 does best — consolidate, compress, and politely refuse to provide excitement. The prior session’s rhythm carries forward, volatility slips into cruise control, and most participants quietly agree that time is the primary trade.

Sure, anything can happen — this is still a futures market after all — but strategically speaking, this is less about bold positioning and more about running out the clock without spilling your eggnog.

Think sideways action, selective probes, and traders content to protect capital rather than audition for Trader of the Year.

In short:
CD2 = manage risk, mind your levels, and don’t confuse boredom with opportunity.


🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus

Scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

🟢 Bull Case

  • Hold north of 25700 targets 25795…25817…25840


🔴 Bear Case

  • Hold south of 25700 targets 25630…25605…25583

PVA High Edge = 25713    PVA Low Edge = 25680         Prior POC = 25698


⚠️ Tactical Takeaway

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.


NQH

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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