Secure Cycle Low

Further probing for a secure cycle low in the overnight session seems to have been found at 1890.25. Based upon a violation of the CD 1 Low (1899.75), there was a 45% chance of reaching 1889.50. In early morning trade price has rallied 21 handles to 1911.25 as of 8 am. Average Range on CD 2 is 22.25 handles, so the range is just about satisfied.

Average Range on CD 2 = 22.25 handles; Odds of rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of rally > 20 = 44% Bullish 3-day Cycle Target Zone = 1919.25 – 1922.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are not predictions, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Having probed lower in overnight trade and found a secure low (1890.25) from which to rally, strong odds (83%) favored a rally greater than 10 handles. This has already occurred in pre-pit session trade. We’ll be looking to buy pullbacks intra-day into the Dynamic Fair-Value Zone (FVZ)…Current VTMP is 1900 – 02, so we’ll use that as initial buy marker. Upside targets measure 1912 – 14 zone (3D CPZ)…Potential for some resistance within this zone…IF bulls can penetrate and convert, the Cycle Targets 1922 – 23 zone with Xtremes measuring 1925 – 28 zone.

Scenario 2: Price is currently trading pre-pit session at initial upside target zone (3D CPZ)…IF price fails to convert, THEN opportunity for aggressive short-side trade may unfold for a pullback into FVZ.

Trade Strategy: Today is CD 2 which typically is a back n fill type day with a bullish skew…Having found a more secure cycle low from which to rally, tactical trade strategy will be to search for pullback opportunities into Dynamic Fair Value Zone (FVZ) as upside cycle targets are still achievable. This does not preclude us from shorting opportunities from Key Decision Point Zone cited above. Remain Flexible…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Four
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.



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