Symmetrical Pullback

The down auction enters it’s sixth-day with solid pattern of lower lows and lower highs…i.e. downtrend. It’s been an orderly pullback well within the context of prior symmetrical pullbacks. Final low does not yet appear to be in place, so further downside prob for a secure low is important to launch the next up leg. Yesterday’s projected low zone (1905.75 – 1902.50) for anticipated buy response hit very nicely with low of day 1903.00. Odds favored a strong rally (82%) greater than 10 handles…Day Session Range Projection (17.75) off the low (1905.75) hit to the tick…Here’s the calculation: 1905.75 (low) + 17.75 (avg range) = 1923.50 (projected target). The actual HOD = 1923.50  Pretty amazing!!

Today begins a new cycle (CD1): Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Range on CD1 = 22.00; Odds of a decline > 10 = 70%; Odds of a decline > 20 = 40%

***Note: The odds highlighted are not predictions, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Prior Day High (1923.50)…IF penetrated and converted, THEN there is a 56% chance of price reaching 1926.50 up to 1929.25 – 1932.25 zone. Breakout Target for session is 1934.75.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1923.50) and subsequent violation of ONL (1913.50) projects downside 1910.25 – 1908.25, followed by, 1903.50 – 1901.00 STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Today begins a new Cycle (CD1), the current overnight low appears to be secure from which to begin a new 3-day up auction. We’ll be favoring buying pullbacks today as long as 1916 handle holds. Violation of this level and we’ll readjust our tactical trade.

Remain Focused and Disciplined…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.


Leave a Reply