Get ready for the big show! The busiest week of the Q4 earnings season is about to kick off, with more than 100 companies representing nearly a third of the S&P 500’s market value set to report results.
Meta Platforms (META) will disclose its quarterly results tomorrow, while Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are gearing up for Thursday. According to FactSet, overall earnings are projected to decline for the season, with technology and media companies among the top losers. Massive layoffs have already hit the industry as a consumer spending slowdown and an aggressive Fed weakens growth-oriented sectors of the economy.
FOMC meeting begins
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Confidence
3:00 PM Farm Prices
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three-Day Cycle objectives were fulfilled as price failed to extend the rally. As such, a new decline began which has carried through to overnight activity exceeding the Average Range Decline (4026.75). Prior range was 56 handles on 1.730M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4026.75 which has been fulfilled. We’ll be anticipating some back n fill today as price continues to work off and consolidate recent activity. Overall bulls are still in control, though a pullback from recent rally highs is to be expected, ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4030, initially targets 4040 – 4045 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4030, initially targets 4010 – 4005 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4064 PVA Low Edge = 4037 Prior POC = 4055
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4068; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3983; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4064; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4083; 10 Day Average True Range 60; VIX: 20
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline measures 12019.50 which has been fulfilled. We’ll be anticipating some back n fill today as price continues to work off and consolidate recent activity. Overall bulls are still in control, though a pullback from recent rally highs is to be expected, ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11960, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12000– 12035 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11960, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11880 – 11870 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12086 PVA Low Edge = 11981 Prior POC = 11988
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12138; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11736; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12087; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12153; 10 Day Average True Range: 267; VIX: 20
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN