Markets
The S&P 500 finished the month off 4.8%, while the Dow and the Nasdaq slipped 4.3% and 5.4%, respectively. The losses – triggered by fears of inflation, slowing growth and rising interest rates – even led the S&P 500 to notch its worst monthly performance since the pandemic took hold in March 2020.
Currents from the sea of red are also spreading outside of the U.S. Over in Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed down 2.3%, while in Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 fell 1.5%
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:00 Consumer Sentiment
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Sellers were dominant and aggressive throughout the session, culminating with a huge MOC Sell $6.5 Billion quarter ending re-balance. Range was 95 handles on 2.220M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price dipped lower overnight and buyers responded within the CD3 Violation Support Zone (4271 – 4261). As of this writing (8:am) price is rallying back above PC (4298). Cycle has strong odds of recovering CD1 Low (4344.25) during RTH session, to avert a “failed cycle” . As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4310, initially targets 4330 – 4345 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4310, initially targets 4295 – 4285 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4350 PVA Low Edge = 4295 Prior POC = 4310
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4322; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4255; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4354; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4378; 10 Day Average True Range 62; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is trading higher pre-RTH as buyers responded strongly from CD3 Violation Support Zone (14626 — 14597). Bulls will need to recover CD1 Low (14711) during RTH to avert a “failed” cycle. Prior range was 213 handles on 692k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14872 PVA Low Edge = 14752 Prior POC = 14808
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14670, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14720 – 14750 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14670, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14650 – 14625 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14805; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14482; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14815; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14815; 10 Day Average True Range: 254; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN