Get ready for a volatile October… The month, traditionally known for its ups and downs, didn’t disappoint traders overnight. S&P 500 futures opened the session solidly in the green on Sunday evening, only to fall 0.7%, before heading back to the flatline. Contracts linked to the DJIA moved in line with the benchmark index, while the Nasdaq saw even steeper price swings.
10:00 Factory Orders
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12:30 PM Investor Movement Index
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): We wrote in DTS 10.1.21 the following: “Cycle has strong odds of recovering CD1 Low (4344.25) during RTH session, to avert a “failed cycle.” .” Strength of the 3 Day Cycle shined brightly, as price performed as expected…Buyers responding from violation support (4261)…Low of the day was 4260. Price then proceeded to rally throughout the session, recovering CD1 Low (4344.25), fulfilling the high probability statistic (91%) of securing a Positive 3 Day Cycle. Range was 105 handles on 2.087M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 is for a decline, with average measuring 4323.50, which has been fulfilled during overnight trade. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4330, initially targets 4345 – 4350 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4330, initially targets 4320 – 4315 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4328 PVA Low Edge = 4273 Prior POC = 4320
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4382; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4283; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4336; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4350; 10 Day Average True Range; 66; VIX: 22.85
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price also recovered it’s previous CD1 Low (14711) during prior session, averting a failed cycle. Overnight activity, price has fulfilled it’s current CD1 Decline objective (14643.50). Prior range was 281 handles on 641k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 11720 PVA Low Edge = 14579 Prior POC = 14613
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14695, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14720 – 14735 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14695, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14640 – 14613 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14891; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14576; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14751; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14829; 10 Day Average True Range: 258; VIX: 22.85
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN