Trump tests positive for COVID-19Stock index futures are down sharply, sliding around 2% overnight, after President Donald Trump tweeted he and First Lady Melania Trump have begun to quarantine after testing positive for the coronavirus.
The September jobs report is out this morning, which will be one of the last major economic releases (besides Q3 GDP data) before the presidential election on Nov. 3. While economists predict the U.S. added another 850,000 jobs last month – marking the first time hiring has fallen below the 1M mark since May – the U.S. has regained about half of the 23M jobs it lost since the start of the coronavirus crisis. The unemployment rate has meanwhile fallen far faster than anyone would have dreamed of six months ago, and it’s forecast to dip another 2 percentage points to 8.2% (down from a pandemic high of 14.7%).
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Continuation rally faded after fulfilling CD2 Penetration Level (3384), as price action proceeded to unfold as a typical Cycle Day 2 consolidation. Market on Close Buy Imbalance of $1.6 billion capped the session. Range was 44.75 handles on 1.482M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading lower in overnight trade, giving back most of this cycle’s rally. Positive Cycle Statistic has been fulfilled. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3315, initially targeting 3335 – 3345 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3315, initially targeting 3300 – 3290 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3371 PVA Low Edge = 3337 Prior POC = 3361
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2020 (Z) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has given back three-fourths of this cycle’s gains, though Positive Cycle Statistic is in-place. We will mark today as a “wild-card” with Non-Farm Payrolls and uncertainty surrounding POTUS’ positive COVID-19 test. As such, there are two scenarios to consider for today’s trading:
PVA High Edge = 11220 PVA Low Edge = 10936 Prior POC = 11085
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11350, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11400 – 11450 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11350, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11300 – 11250 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2020 (Z) Contract
Crude futures are off nearly 4% to under $38/barrel, extending losses from yesterday’s sharp decline that saw the energy sector sink to a six-month low. Rising coronavirus cases around the world are hurting the demand outlook, with further price pressure from last month’s increase in OPEC production. Standard Chartered analysts now expect global demand to fall by 9M bbl/day this year before recovering by ~5.5M bbl/day next year, leaving the 2021 average slightly below the 2016 average.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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