Trade Strategy 11.3.21

Markets

Taper is near

The Federal Reserve will conclude its latest two-day meeting this afternoon and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The central intends to end its pandemic-era bond purchases, a process known as “tapering,” by stepping away from a historic level of support for the economy. Since June 2020, the Fed has been buying $120B in monthly asset purchases, including $80B in Treasury bonds and $40B in mortgage-backed securities.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

 

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): This Cycle’s Average Decline (4590) was established during the previous CD3 session. Buyer’s continued the rally spilled over from the prior session to fulfill the upside 4622 range target. Range was 34 handles on 944k contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for some back n fill to balance recent rally gains, with an upside bias. Buyer’s remain active on any down tick in price, as value zones continue to rise in uptrend condition. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4615, initially targets 4625 – 4630 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4615, initially targets 4605 – 4595 zone.

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)

PVA High Edge = 4625       PVA Low Edge = 4615         Prior POC = 4621

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4648; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4593; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4601; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4628; 10 Day Average True Range  31; VIX: 16

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is consolidating near the upper end of previous value area (15962) during overnight activity. Prior range was 130 handles on 416k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15962       PVA Low Edge = 15917     Prior POC = 15954

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15981, THEN initial upside estimate targets 16004 – 16012 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15981, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15944 – 15930 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 16111; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15814; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15849; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16091; 10 Day Average True Range: 174; VIX: 16

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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