Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price failed to expand higher and stalled at 4619 handle. Being a “wild-card” day with cycle objectives fulfilled, the decline began into our projected target zone between 4590 – 4588 where price found responsive buyers.. Range was 33 handles on 1.023M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline (4590) has been fulfilled during prior session. Normal for CD1 is to establish a “secure low” from which to stage the next cycle rally. Currently price is trading in a neutral pattern at the daily pivot of 4605. We’ll see if yesterday’s decline can spill over into today’s session. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4605, initially targets 4613 – 4619 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4605, initially targets 4593 – 4588 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4608 PVA Low Edge = 4594 Prior POC = 4605
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4627; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4575; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4587; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4628; 10 Day Average True Range; 32; VIX: 16.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is consolidating at upper edge of prior value area (15862) during overnight activity. Prior range was 146 handles on 406k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 15862 PVA Low Edge = 15798 Prior POC = 15813
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15857, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15905 – 15915 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15857, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15832 – 15805 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2021 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 16023; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15723; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15766; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16091; 10 Day Average True Range: 174; VIX: 16.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN