8:30 Producer Price Index
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Selling straight from the opening set this day’s trading tone. Typically the trading day ends how it begins. Market on Close capped the day with $2.7 Sell Imbalance as registered by Mr Top Step’s Market Imbalance Meter (MiM). Range was 68 handles on 1.367M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4656, which is currently in-place. Overnight activity has price fulfilling CD1 Violation Level (4640.50) “To-the-Tick”, and has bounced back approximately 15 handles. We’ll be looking to see if price can stabilize and rally further, though retest of the current low (4640.50) would be normal. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4650, initially targets 4665 – 4670 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4650, initially targets 4640 – 4635 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4682 PVA Low Edge = 4658 Prior POC = 4673
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4706; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4610; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4680; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4675; 10 Day Average True Range; 66; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price has surpassed CD1 Average Decline (16123.50) and has continued lower, hitting STATX Low (15974) during overnight activity. Prior range was 350 handles on normal volume 463k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 16274 PVA Low Edge = 16065 Prior POC = 16160
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 16000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 16015 – 16025 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 16000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15985– 15960 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 16260; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15833; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16230; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16127; 10 Day Average True Range: 300; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN