As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee increased its policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, as it downshifted from the 75 bps hikes of its previous four meetings. While that would appear to be a win for investors, the so-called “dot plot” was more of a concern. The Fed policymakers’ median projection now sees the federal funds target range rising to 5.1% next year – a level last seen in 2007 – compared with 4.6% in the central bank’s September projection.
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:15 Industrial Production
10:00 Business Inventories
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): This cycle day was a “Wild-Ride Clyde” following FED’s hawkish stance to combat the “I” word via persistent “i-word”. Range was 93 handles on 1.581M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently trading below CD1 Low (4017.50) with favorable odds to recover this level and securing a positive cycle statistic. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 3990, initially targets 4010 – 4020 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 3990, initially targets 3970 – 3960 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4085 PVA Low Edge = 4034 Prior POC = 4076
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading below CD1 Low (11197.25) with favorable odds to recover this level and securing a positive cycle statistic. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11711, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11795 – 11815 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11711, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11650 – 11635 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12062 PVA Low Edge = 11879 Prior POC = 12030
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2023 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN6.22.22