Markets
Worries about the future of Federal Reserve policy are intensifying, fueling a substantial selloff on Wall Street on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 764 points to log its worst day in three months, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 2.5% and 3.3%, respectively.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
9:45 PMI Composite Flash
12:00 PM Fed’s Daly Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Risk-Off sentiment continued as trend down dominated the session. Prior range was 135 handles on 1.941M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3963 which has been grossly exceeded. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight and pre-RTH price is extending this current trend down, trading as low as 3871 handle. OPEX today with over $3 trillion of expiring options. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3910, initially targets 3940 – 3950 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3910, initially targets 3875 – 3870 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3947 PVA Low Edge = 3910 Prior POC = 3928
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3960; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3845; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4028; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3996; 10 Day Average True Range 89; VIX: 23
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11574 which has been grossly exceeded. Normal for CD1 is a decline to find a new secure cycle low. Overnight and pre-RTH price is extending this current trend down, trading as low as 11312 handle. OPEX today with over $3 trillion of expiring options. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11404, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11515– 11535 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11404, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11300 – 11280 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11609 PVA Low Edge = 11404 Prior POC = 11472
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11628; LOD ATR Range Projection: 1172; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11836; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11780; 10 Day Average True Range: 317; VIX: 23
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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