Following a rally after Wednesday’s Fed meeting and the following morning, Wall Street indices turned south about an hour into the session on Thursday and continued to descend into the close.
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Wide range reversal session unfolded as post-fed realities set in following the “BIG OPTIONS UNWIND”. Range was 101 handles on 1.976M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4665, which is currently in-place. Price has violated PL (4642) and fulfilled initial Violation Level (4627). QUAD OPEX is on deck for today, so expectation is for continued elevated volatility. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4642, initially targets 4653 – 4659 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4642, initially targets 4627 – 4620 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4705 PVA Low Edge = 4645 Prior POC = 4664
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4698; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4594; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4660; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4660; 10 Day Average True Range; 74; VIX: 22
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price is extending prior session selling below PL (15793) and has surpassed CD1 Average Decline (16051) during overnight trade activity. Prior range was 664 handles on 759k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 16165 PVA Low Edge = 15794 Prior POC = 15874
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15793, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15833 – 15860 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15793, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15684– 15630 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 16051; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15507; 3 Day Central Pivot: 16025; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16018; 10 Day Average True Range: 390; VIX: 22
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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