Trade Strategy 12.20.21

Markets

Risk-off sentiment is taking the upper hand this morning as Omicron headlines fill up trading screens across the globe. The selloff began during the session in Asia, where the Hang Seng Index fell 2%, and then extended to Europe, where the EURO STOXX 50 slid nearly 3% by mid-morning trade. While things have since pulled off their lows, U.S., stock futures were off 2% at one point, and oil got hammered, with WTI crude futures slumping as much as 5.5% to $66.80/bbl.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

10:00 Leading Indicators

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as quadruple options expiration selling pressure favored the bears at week’s end. Range was 78 handles on 2.269M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Selling pressure has spilled over throughout globex session below CD1 Low (4590), fulfilling lower violation level (4540) before bouncing back to 4550 – 60 zone. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4550, initially targets 4565 – 4580 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4550, initially targets 4530 – 4525 zone.

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4639       PVA Low Edge = 4607         Prior POC = 4627

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4600; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4548; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4658; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4625; 10 Day Average True Range  73; VIX: 25.50

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NQ is continuing to feel the selling heat as price traded well below CD1 violation level (15607) during globex session, though has rebounded a bit pre-RTH, but still below CD1 Low (15652). As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15900       PVA Low Edge = 15749     Prior POC = 15815

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15585, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15610 – 15615 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15585, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15535 – 15505 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15878; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15477; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15982; 3 Day Cycle Target: 16008; 10 Day Average True Range: 374; VIX: 25.50

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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