Markets
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Fed’s Barkin Speech
8:30 Import/Export Prices
8:45 Fed’s Bowman Speech
10:00 E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined and established a new cycle low at 4095. Prior range was 73 handles on 1.990M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent activity. Today is OPEX which is expected to have a significant influence of directional lean. Prior session’s weak close may continue to spill into today’s session with down targets near the 4065 – 4060 handles. On flip side, should bulls hold ground near 4100 strike, reversal potential could drive price back above 4115 handle. Bottom line is to remain very flexible, as recent days have seen multiple Range-Runner swings > 1% per Nomura’s market research. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4095, initially targets 4115 – 4120 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4095, initially targets 4065 – 4060 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4144 PVA Low Edge = 4108 Prior POC = 4128
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4130; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4030; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4136; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4135; 10 Day Average True Range 66; VIX: 20
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined and established a new cycle low at 12455. Prior range was 337 handles on 669k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent activity. Today is OPEX which is expected to have a significant influence of directional lean. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12455, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12525– 12550 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12455, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12385 – 12345 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12690 PVA Low Edge = 12542 Prior POC = 12658
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12625; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12178; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12603; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12617; 10 Day Average True Range: 287; VIX: 20
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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