As expected, the Federal Reserve hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% on Wednesday, slowing the rapid tightening campaign that had dented stocks and other assets in 2022.
While the central bank reiterated that it would be data-dependent, investors are already seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, with the Nasdaq Composite Index finishing the session up 2%
7:30 Challenger Job-Cut Report
8:30 Productivity and Costs
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:00 Factory Orders
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): FED JPOW’s “dovish” presser lead to a sharp rally pushing to upper 4150 boundary with expanding volumes. Prior range was 115 handles on 1.937M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having surpassed Cycle Targets, we will mark today as a “wild-card” as newly establish upper range target zones have been recalculated (see below). Post FED, traders shift their focus to company specific earnings reports. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4135, initially targets 4155 – 4160 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4135, initially targets 4115 – 4110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4123 PVA Low Edge = 4050 Prior POC = 4080
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4204; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4093; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4077; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4094; 10 Day Average True Range 67; VIX: 17
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Having surpassed Cycle Targets, we will mark today as a “wild-card” as newly establish upper range target zones have been recalculated (see below). Post FED, traders shift their focus to company specific tech earnings reports. (AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL) As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12550, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12600– 12650 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12550, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12500 – 12450 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12345 PVA Low Edge = 12055 Prior POC = 12127
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12798; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12317; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12158; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12257; 10 Day Average True Range: 296; VIX: 17
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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