A major selloff in equities is making its way across the globe as the number of new coronavirus cases flares outside China, with the disease now spreading to at least 28 countries. Italy has canceled all public events in Venice and Milan as it confirmed 150 cases (and four deaths) of the virus over the weekend, while those diagnosed in South Korea – which raised its disease alert to the highest level – are nearing 800.
A steep drop is also being seen in the U.S., with Dow futures plunging over 800 points and crude oil down 3.6% at $51.46/bbl. Gold is up 2.4% to a seven-year high of $1689/ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield is 8 bps lower to 1.38%.
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -1.8%. China -0.3%. India -2%.
In Europe, at midday, London -3.5%. Paris -3.8%. Frankfurt -3.7%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -2.8%. S&P -2.7%. Nasdaq -3.2%. Crude -3.6% to $51.46. Gold +2.4% to $1688.50. Bitcoin -1.4% to $9753.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -8 bps to 1.39%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
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Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Statistically greater than normal decline has occurred during Globex exceeding all “normal” cycle projections. Price is finding some responsive buying near the January 31 lows and 200% of 10-day Average True Range. Volatility Index (VIX) has spiked to 23 level.
World-wide COVD-19 cases have increased and Goldman Sachs has increased their “grow-drag” (new wall street term) from the coronavirus.
CD1 Range High = 3374.00 ATR Range Low = 3246.00 CD1 Range Avg = 32.00
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3254, THEN initial upside estimate targets 3260 – 3270 zone
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 3254, THEN initial downside estimate targets 3248 – 3242 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 9528 (exceeded). Average Range for CD1 is 113.25 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 67%
Note: Average True Range has been exceeded by twice the norm as well as CD1 Statistical Projections.
ATR Range High = 9263.00 ATR Range Low = 9141.00 CD1 Range Avg = 113.25
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9180, THEN initial upside estimate targets 9208 – 9230 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9180, THEN initial downside estimate targets 9160 – 9140 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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