Relief rally was in the works overnight as investors retraced some of yesterday’s historic losses, though markets are still trying to find their footing. Up by as much as 1% earlier, U.S. stock index futures are now hugging the flatline after briefly dipping into the red.
Monday’s coronavirus-driven plunge saw the Dow record its third-worst drop ever by tumbling more than 1,000 points, the S&P 500 shed $920B in value in a session that wiped nearly all YTD gains, and curve inversions deepen as bond yields hit fresh record lows.
In Asia, Japan -3.3%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China -0.6%. India -0.2%.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.8%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.9%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow flat. S&P flat. Nasdaq flat. Crude -0.7% to $51.09. Gold -1.3% to $1655.70. Bitcoin -2.6% to $9518.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -2 bps to 1.38%
Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Fed’s Kaplan Speech
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Following prior session’s deep statistical decline, normal for today would be finding price stabilization and new balance zone, stemming further price deterioration.
Overnight developing value zone 30 handle range between 3221 – 3251. We’ll use this area as today’s initial trading “sandbox” playground.
Note: 3 Day Cycle Target (3254) has been fulfilled rather easily given the extent of current price range volatility.
VA Range High = 3254.00 VA Range Low = 3221.00 CD2 Range Avg = 29.25
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 3236, THEN initial upside estimate targets 3250 – 3264 zone
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 3236, THEN initial downside estimate targets 3221 – 3214 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3264.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3210.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3321.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3251.00; 10 Day Average True Range 49.00; VIX: 23.80
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD1)…Overnight developing value zone 120 handle range between 9098 – 9217. We’ll use this area as today’s initial trading “sandbox” playground.
VA Range High = 9217.00 VA Range Low = 9098.00 CD2 Range Avg = 111.00
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 9133, THEN initial upside estimate targets 9195 – 9217 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 9133, THEN initial downside estimate targets 9110 – 9070 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2020 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 9241.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 9037.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 9432.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 9204.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 188.00; VIX: 23.80
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN