8:30 Durable Goods
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 3947.50. Prior range was 75 handles on 1.676M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent selling activity. Price is currently trading higher during overnight and pre-RTH activity. Bulls will need to sustain a firm bid above 3975 to recover back into last week’s range. Initial recovery measures 3995 – 4005 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3975, initially targets 3995 – 4005 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3975, initially targets 3955 – 3950 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3977 PVA Low Edge = 3956 Prior POC = 3967
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4036; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3935; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3998; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4015; 10 Day Average True Range 62; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal for CD1 as price declined establishing a new cycle low at 11923. Prior range was 291 handles on 631k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Normal for CD2 is back n fill consolidation to work off recent selling activity. Price is currently trading higher during overnight and pre-RTH activity. Bulls will need to sustain a firm bid above 12000 to recover back into last week’s range. Initial recovery measures 12055 – 12075 zone. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12000, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12055– 12075 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12000, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11950 – 11940 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12002 PVA Low Edge = 10942 Prior POC = 11962
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12248; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11820; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12112; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12160; 10 Day Average True Range: 258; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN