Trade Strategy 3.30.22

Markets

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:15 ADP Jobs Report
8:30 GDP Q4
8:30 Corporate profits
9:15 Fed’s Barkin Speech
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index

11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

Crude prices neared a two-week low on Tuesday despite dubious progress in Russia-Ukraine talks that suggested only one thing: the rebound, when it comes, will be wild and just what the oil bull had ordered.

New York-traded U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, settled down $1.72, or 1.6%, at $103.24. WTI fell below the $100 support to $98.58 earlier, marking a near two-week low.

The slump followed Monday’s 7% drop in both crude benchmarks and reinforced the sheer volatility that has become the new normal for oil these days. It’s a phenomenon that appears encouraged by longs seeking to buy the dip in crude, to profit big-time later.

Source: http://Investing.com

S&P 500

***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price oscillated throughout most of this session having fulfilled upside cycle objectives. Late day newsy flow helped price expand higher away from consolidated intra-day value zone, closing near highs of the day. Range was 66 handles on 1.312M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Bulls are in-control of current price momentum, so it is theirs to lose. Average Decline for CD1 measures 4600.  As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4615, initially targets 4630 – 4635 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4615, initially targets 4605 – 4595 zone.

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)

PVA High Edge = 4616       PVA Low Edge = 4585        Prior POC = 4606

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4682; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4550; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4560; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4722; 10 Day Average True Range  77; VIX: 19.50

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price begins a new Cycle with Average Decline measuring 15175 which has been fulfilled during overnight trade activity. Prior range was  312 handles on 547k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 15175, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15225 – 15250 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 15175, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15142 – 15140 zone.

PVA High Edge = 15190       PVA Low Edge = 15045     Prior POC = 15142

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15499; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14904; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14917; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15686; 10 Day Average True Range: 358; VIX: 19.50

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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