It’s the final monthly employment report before the FOMC gathers for its upcoming March meeting. Consensus economist forecasts see a gain of 400K non-farm payroll additions last month, compared to the 467K gain in January, leaving employment only 2.5M jobs below its pre-pandemic level (those jobs losses are expected to be fully recouped this year). February’s unemployment rate is also anticipated to fall 0.1 percentage points to 3.9%, while worker scarcity likely pushed up average hourly earnings by 0.5%, or 5.8% Y/Y. Stay tuned for the release of the report by the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. ET.
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:45 Fed’s Evans Speech
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price “waffled” throughout this cycle day with a downside lean, as bulls could not hold onto a firm bid, with each attempt to move higher was thwarted by “Da Bears.” Prior range was 78 handles on 1.503M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4312, which is currently in-place. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4312, initially targets 4336 – 4346 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4312, initially targets 4290 – 4280 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4387 PVA Low Edge = 4351 Prior POC = 4361
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4410; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4247; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4350; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4381; 10 Day Average True Range; 127; VIX: 34
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 13864, which is currently in-place. Prior range was 436 handles on 591k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13864, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13990 – 14085 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13864, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13787– 13748 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14235 PVA Low Edge = 14042 Prior POC = 14137
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14275; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13556; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14117; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14204; 10 Day Average True Range: 530; VIX: 34
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN