As pressure builds to sanction Russia, the Biden administration is inching closer towards a ban on the import of Russian oil and energy products. Brent (CO1:COM) touched nearly $140 a barrel on the news overnight, threatening to intensify inflationary pressures, while WTI crude (CL1:COM) soared 12% to $130/bbl for the first time since 2008.
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Normal CD1 as it was “risk-off” Fryday. Prior range was 93 handles on 1.695M, contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets are beginning this week trading lower during GLOBEX Session surpassing CD2 Violation Zone, but has since recovered back above CD1 Low (4281.25) pre-RTH. Volatility Index (VIX) is 34. Expectation is for continued wide swings as investor/trader uneasiness will dominate activity for the foreseeable future. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4282, initially targets 4305 – 4315 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4282, initially targets 4260 – 4250 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4330 PVA Low Edge = 4298 Prior POC = 4325
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price declined to 13528 during early GLOBEX Session, but has since recovered back above CD1 Low (13733.75) during pre-RTH. Prior range was 352 handles on 703k contracts traded. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13906 PVA Low Edge = 13758 Prior POC = 13782
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13733, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13780 – 13830 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13733, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13650 – 13600 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN