Fears of an economic downturn sent equities into a tailspin on Monday, triggering a steep selloff on Wall Street as commodities like oil, wheat and nickel powered higher. The S&P 500 plunged 3% for its worst day since October 2020, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 800 points to join the S&P in correction territory for the first time in two years. The Nasdaq even ended the session in bear market territory, casting a dark shadow on March after all three indices fell in each of the previous two months.
8:30 Goods and Services Trade
8.55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00 Wholesale Inventories (Preliminary)
1:00 PM Results of $48B, 3-Year Note Auction
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Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Price continued moving lower throughout this day as “risk-off” theme gathered greater momentum. Range was 140 handles on 1.814M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): price is currently trading below CD1 Low, (4281.250) so the bulls will have their work cut out for themselves to recover this level for a positive cycle statistic. We’ll see if “Turn-Around Tuesday” can fulfill the objective. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4185, initially targets 4230 – 4240 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4185, initially targets 4165 – 4150 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4297 PVA Low Edge = 4223 Prior POC = 4266
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4270; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4103; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4312; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4317; 10 Day Average True Range 131; VIX: 35
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is attempting to bounce back during overnight extended weakness from yesterday’s session. 3 Day Cycle recovery objective is 13733.75 for a positive cycle statistic. Prior range was 615 handles on 703k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 13268, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13425 – 13460 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 13268, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13188 – 13110 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13735 PVA Low Edge = 13460 Prior POC = 13610
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13642; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12886; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13830; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13733; 10 Day Average True Range: 538; VIX: 35
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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