Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be back in the hot seat on Wednesday, delivering his second day of semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets were already jolted in the previous session following comments that suggested the central bank could put an end to its recent shift towards more gradual tightening. The dollar surged and the benchmark S&P 500 Index closed out Tuesday with a loss of 1.5%, while the key 2-year (US2Y) and 10-year (US10Y) Treasury yield curve hit its deepest inversion since 1981
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 was interrupted as JPOW’s Senate Banking Committee hawkish testimony sent shock waves that reverberated throughout the markets, closing near lows of the session. Prior range was 82 handles on 2.034M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (4041.75) as sentiment momentum has shifted back to “risk-off”. Structure is broken, so additional downside is clearly a vulnerable scenario. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3990, initially targets 4015 – 4020 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3990, initially targets 3975 – 3970 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4022 PVA Low Edge = 3983 Prior POC = 3990
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2023 (H) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 was interrupted as JPOW’s Senate Banking Committee hawkish testimony sent shock waves that reverberated throughout the markets closing near lows of the session. Prior range was 239 handles on 676k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (12276.25) as sentiment momentum has shifted back to “risk-off”. Structure is broken, so additional downside is clearly a vulnerable scenario. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 12150, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12230– 12245 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 12150, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12055 – 12040 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12290 PVA Low Edge = 12162 Prior POC = 12230
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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