Markets
Inflation watchers this morning will be eyeing the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The CPI is expected to come in at a whopping 8.4% Y/Y for March
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
1:00 PM Results of $34B, 10-Year Bond Auction
2:00 PM Treasury Statement
5:30 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): This week started where last week ended…”Risk-Off” sentiment prevailed as gap lower set this day’s tone. Support Zone (4420 – 25) ultimately succumbed to the persistent selling pressure during final 60 minutes, settling near low of the day. Prior range was 88 handles on 1.382M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4387 fulfilled during GLOBEX Session. We’ll be looking for this level to hold as support to start this cycle’s rally. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4390, initially targets 4415 – 4420 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4390, initially targets 4370 – 4365 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4455 PVA Low Edge = 4420 Prior POC = 4428
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4451; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4345; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4470; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4419; 10 Day Average True Range; 69; VIX: 24
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 13890 for this cycle day. Price continued it’s decline during GLOBEX fulfilling lower Violation Level (13933). Bulls will need to squelch the selling and stabilize the negative momentum in order for this cycle’s next rally to unfold. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13985, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14045 – 14060 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13985, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13935– 13900 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14179 PVA Low Edge = 14043 Prior POC = 14062
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14245; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13703; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14348; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14288; 10 Day Average True Range: 343; VIX: 24
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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