Trade Strategy 4.11.22

Markets

Talk of the market

Ahead of bank earnings and inflation data later in the week, investors are keeping their eyes on the 10-year Treasury yield, which continues to spike to multi-year highs. Early Monday, the rate climbed 5 basis points to 2.76%, notching a level last seen in 2019.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

9:30 Fed’s Bostic Speech
12:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech
12:40 PM Fed’s Evans Speech
1:00 PM Results of $46B, 3-Year Note Auction

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Morning session strength faded as “risk-off” prevailed during Afternoon session at end of week. Range was 51 handles on 1.293M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently above below CD1 Low (4444.50) and will need to hold during RTH for a positive cycle statistic. Historical odds favor this outcome, though sentiment shift has taken a negative turn. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 4455, initially targets 4470 – 4475 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 4455, initially targets 4445 – 4425 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4512       PVA Low Edge = 4485        Prior POC = 4406

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4516; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4425; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4486; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4482; 10 Day Average True Range  66; VIX: 23

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has broken down below CD1 Low (14317). Momentum is accelerating to the downside as price has already fulfilled downside cycle target (14155). Price will need to recover to avert a failed cycle. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 14215, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14260 – 14280 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 14215, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14155 – 14075 zone.

PVA High Edge = 14450       PVA Low Edge = 14320     Prior POC = 14381

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2022 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 14492; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14045; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14502; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14317; 10 Day Average True Range: 337; VIX: 23

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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