Trade Strategy 5.29.19

Markets

10-year Treasury yield heads to 2%

With risk aversion increasing globally in recent days, bonds are rallying. At the beginning of May, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was about 2.55%, but it’s now hovering around the 2.22% level, marking an over 30 bps move downward this month alone. Some analysts have also increased bets that the Fed will cut U.S. interest rates not once but twice this year, countering concerns about slowing global growth that have been inflamed by the worsening U.S.-China trade war.

In Asia, Japan -1.2%. Hong Kong -0.6%. China +0.2%. India +0.7%. 
In Europe, at midday, London -1.4%. Paris -1.7%. Frankfurt -1.3%. 
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.8%. S&P -0.8%. Nasdaq -1%. Crude -1.4% to $58.32. Gold +0.5% to $1283.40. Bitcoin -2% to $8551. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 2.23%

Source: Seeking Alpha

Economic Calendar

http://mam.econoday.com/

7:00MBA Mortgage Applications
8:55Redbook Chain Store Sales
10:00Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30Results of $18B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PMResults of $32B, 7-Year Note Auction

***PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has fulfilled its lower Statistical Extreme Target (2787) from Cycle Day 1 Normal Decline. Bulls have their work cut-out to stem further selling and repel “Da Bears”. Recovery targets 2800.50 Cycle Day 1 Low.

On an associated side-note, we have been discussing in the Trading Room the heavy concentration of Put Volume and Open Interest with the 281…280…274 Strikes. Use the following link to access Opricot’s Options Graph: http://www.opricot.com/ticker/spy/optiongraphs

CD2 Range High = 2810.75       CD2 Range Low = 2882.25    CD2 Range Avg = 28.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2800, THEN initial upside potential targets 2810 – 2815 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2800, THEN initial downside objective targets 2787 – 2782.25 statistical low range zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2019 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2813.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2774.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2826.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2838.25; 10 Day Average True Range 31.50: VIX: 18.50

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price has fulfilled its CD2 Average Violation Target at 7224.50. Bulls will need to hold price above this level to stem off further selling. Recovery targets 7280.25 Cycle Day 1 Low.

CD2 Range High = 7275.50          CD2 Range Low = 7238.75          CD2 Range Avg = 99.50

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7280.25, THEN initial upside potential targets 7314.50 – 7327.25 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7280.25, THEN initial downside objective targets 7238.75 – 7224.50 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2019 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7318.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7196.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7320.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7350.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 99.67; VIX: 18.50

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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