Trade Strategy 6.14.22

Markets

Bear blues

An intense selloff hit Wall Street on Monday as traders got rattled by worries of entrenched inflation and a possible recession. The S&P 500 slumped nearly 4% to enter a bear market, now off more than 21% from its record high in January.

The selloff came just in time for the latest Fed meeting, which will see FOMC officials meet over the next two days and announce policy changes and economic forecasts on Wednesday. Expectations over the past month priced in a half a percentage point rate hike, but an up-shift transpired following the elevated CPI reading seen on Friday. Traders now see a 99.8% chance of a 75-basis-point move, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch tool that measures pricing in the fed funds futures markets.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

FOMC meeting begins
6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 Producer Price Index

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets tumbled during this session as there was no where to hide from the persistent selling barrage. “Risk-Off” is the current theme across the investing spectrum. Range was 143 handles on 2.169M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below CD1 Low (3896) as the bulls have quite an uphill trek to recover this level, given the current “risk-off” sentiment, though historical odds support an attempt at recovery. Expectation is for continued elevated volatile price moves as traders search for  more stable levels. Keep in mind VIX and QUAD OPEX along with FOMC are on tap for this week, so keep your seat belts securely buckled. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains bid above 3780, initially targets 3800 – 3815 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains offer below 3780, initially targets 3750 – 3745 zone.

PVA High Edge = 3816       PVA Low Edge = 3761        Prior POC = 3780

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 3857; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3705; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3933; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3896; 10 Day Average True Range  103; VIX: 34

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading within prior value zone (11508 – 11312) during overnight trade activity. Contract Rollover…OPEX/VIX and FOMC are all clustered within a tight time period this week, so expectation is for continued elevated volatility. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11430, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11485 – 11520 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11430, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11355 – 11312 zone.

PVA High Edge = 11508       PVA Low Edge = 11312     Prior POC = 11430

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 11746; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11132; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11992; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11849; 10 Day Average True Range: 402; VIX: 34

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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