Twelve FOMC policymakers walk into a central bank and order a pint of rate hikes. Behind the bar are three kegs with percentages of 50 bps, 75 bps and 100 bps. “How strong would you like it?” asks the Fed Chair. “Not sure,” they reply, “but we’ll decide soon.” The meetup drags on way longer than expected, but the policymakers grow tired and soon begin to leave. “Don’t forget your pint,” says the Fed Chair as they near the door. “Scratch the order,” they exclaim, “it was just transitory!”
8:30 Retail Sales
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 Import/Export Prices
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC Announcement
2:30 PM Chairman Press Conference
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets continued in “sell-mode” throughout this session as traders brace for today’s BIG FED Decision. Prior range was 99 handles on 1.912M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 3775, which has been fulfilled. As traders await the all-important FOMC Announcement and Presser (2:30et), expectation is for quite range-bound trade, with potential for Wild Ryde Clyde post announcement. Lots happening with Futures Contract Rollover, VIX/OPEX Expiration’s and FOMC. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3780, initially targets 3797 – 3807 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3780, initially targets 3750 – 3733 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3765 PVA Low Edge = 3733 Prior POC = 3738
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 11070 for this cycle day. Price is currently trading within 2-day value zone as traders await the all-important FOMC decision today. Expectation is for relatively quiet trade early with potential for Wild Ryde Clyde action post announcement. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 11430, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11480 – 11508 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 11430, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11377– 11338 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11396 PVA Low Edge = 11297 Prior POC = 11338
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN