Big Tech and growth stocks led the market higher on Monday as the reflation trade took a backseat. Traders are now wondering if that will be the case going forward after the Fed caught some off-guard two weeks ago when it projected earlier rate hikes than it had previously forecast. Overnight, stock futures inched between gains and losses, though the major averages are still holding near record highs.
Consumer confidence: Fresh figures from The Conference Board will be published this morning and could signal how much optimism Americans have about economic conditions. That could help gauge their readiness to spend on goods and services, as well as the stock market’s direction. Economists have forecast the Consumer Confidence Index will tick higher in June after holding relatively steady since February.
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 Fed’s Barkin Speech
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Another low volume narrow range day with positive 3 Day Cycle intact. Range was again only 18 handles on 801k contracts exchanged. Welcome to Summer Trading.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4254. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4282, initially targets 4290 – 4295 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4282, initially targets 4272 – 4264 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4277 PVA Low Edge = 4267 Prior POC = 4270
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4307; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4248; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4265; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4300; 10 Day Average True Range 35; VIX: 15.75
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 14439.50. Prior range was 186 handles on 370k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14504 PVA Low Edge = 14432 Prior POC = 14466
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14466, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14505 – 14520 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14466, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14440 – 14400 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14635; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14348; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14384; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14600; 10 Day Average True Range: 166; VIX: 15.75
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN