The market has recorded a strong run in 2021, with the S&P 500 on track to register its fifth straight month of gains. The Nasdaq is also headed for its seventh positive month in the last eight, and while the Dow is red for June, it previously notched a four-month winning streak. Investors may be taking some profits before the last trading day of H2 – stock futures fell 0.2% overnight – though many are expecting the recent outsized performance to continue into the second half of the year.
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
1:00 PM Fed’s Barkin Speech
3:00 PM Farm Prices
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
***Written 8 pm Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Decline was very shallow as range and volumes continue to be well below normal levels as summertime trade is firmly entrenched. Range was a meager 19.25 handles on 722k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is for consolidation and “back and fill” action, but strangely this is what has been happening daily. As such, we will continue to anticipate the same for the remainder of this week ahead of fast approaching long July 4th Holiday weekend. Estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4270, initially targets 4290 – 4300 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4270, initially targets 4260 – 4248 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 2 (CD2)
PVA High Edge = 4288 PVA Low Edge = 4281 Prior POC = 4287
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4304; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4255; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4275; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4301; 10 Day Average True Range 35; VIX: 16.50
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NAZ continues to display relative strength at new all-time highs. Any pullback is expected to be absorbed by BTFD crowd. Prior range was 116 handles on 355k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14539 PVA Low Edge = 14471 Prior POC = 14496
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14532, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14558 – 14580 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14532, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14512 – 14495 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14690; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14435; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14450; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14554; 10 Day Average True Range: 163; VIX: 16.50
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN