Trade Strategy 6.5.23 | Polaris Trading Group for Stocks and Futures Traders

Markets (Top Stories)

Economic Calendar

9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM Service Index
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Shallow decline for this Cycle Day established a new low at 4229. Bulls continued to push price to higher ground in full “breakout-mode” to end the week. Prior range was 68 handles on 1.870M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is consolidation to build a new upper range base following prior session’s continuation rally. Three-Day Cycle Target is 4299 and is a whisker away from fulfillment. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4280, initially targets 4295 – 4300 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4280, initially targets 4265 – 4260 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4296 PVA Low Edge = 4265 Prior POC = 4290

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD ATR Range Projection: 4334; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4239; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4227; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4299; 10 Day Average True Range 53; VIX: 15

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Shallow decline for this Cycle Day established a new low at 14468. Bulls continued to push price to higher ground in full “breakout-mode” to end the week. Prior range was 159 handles on 614k contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal for CD2 is consolidation to build a new upper range base following prior session’s continuation rally. Three-Day Cycle Target is 14746 to secure fulfillment. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14515, initially targets 14575 – 14600 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14515, initially targets 14495 – 14470 zone.

PVA High Edge = 14598 PVA Low Edge = 14525 Prior POC = 14583

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD ATR Range Projection: 14765; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14326; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13355; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14746; 10 Day Average True Range: 253; VIX: 15

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

S&P 500

***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets were once again held hostage to the news flow out of DC regarding the Debt Limit negotiations. Traders got impatient and decided to take the sell-side, pushing price below CD1 Low, all the way down to 4150 handle,. This now places price back within the lower multi-day composite range. Prior range was 69 handles on 1.618M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is now well below the CD1 Low (4186) and threatens a “failed” 3 Day Cycle. Bulls have a substantial hill to climb to recover this level. Of course anything and everything can happen, so we’ll maintain our discipline to stay in alignment with the dominant forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4170, initially targets 4185 – 4190 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4170, initially targets 4145 – 4140 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4205 PVA Low Edge = 4165 Prior POC = 4195

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract

HOD ATR Range Projection: 4188; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4118; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4196; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4186; 10 Day Average True Range 47; VIX: 19

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Markets were once again held hostage to the news flow out of DC regarding the Debt Limit negotiations. Traders got impatient and decided to take the sell-side, pushing price below CD1 Low, all the way down to 13710 handle,. This now places price back within the lower multi-day composite range. Prior range was 269 handles on 684k contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is now well below the CD1 Low (13794) and threatens a “failed” 3 Day Cycle. Bulls have a substantial hill to climb to recover this level. Of course anything and everything can happen, so we’ll maintain our discipline to stay in alignment with the dominant forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 13755, initially targets 13780 – 13795 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 13755, initially targets 13675 – 13665 zone.

PVA High Edge = 13876 PVA Low Edge = 13743 Prior POC = 13858