Markets

Oil in focus:

OPEC+ will convene via video conference at 9 a.m. ET to discuss the next phase of their production policy. The group is optimistic about market conditions, with WTI crude up by 50% to $74/bbl since the beginning of the year. At its last monthly meeting, OPEC+ announced a supply increase of 2.1M barrels per day between May and July, and analysts expect that it could bring another 500K barrels per day online starting in August.

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
2:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Normal CD2 as price consolidated throughout the session as window-dressing bid capped off the day into the close. Range was 25 handles on 1.034M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): We’ll mark this day as a “wild-card” as cycle target (4305.75) has been fulfilled. Initial Jobless Claims today and NFP tomorrow will cap this week’s economic agenda. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4294, initially targets 4305 – 4308 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4294, initially targets 4284 – 4280 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4292       PVA Low Edge = 4283         Prior POC = 4284

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4317; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4274; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4281; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4305.75; 10 Day Average True Range  31; VIX: 16

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…We’ll mark this day as a “wild-card”, as cycle objectives have been fulfilled and exceeded. Prior range was only 80 handles on 378k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 14560       PVA Low Edge = 14438      Prior POC = 14550

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14550, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14570 – 14580 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14550, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14520 – 14505 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 14640; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14463; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14518; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14570; 10 Day Average True Range: 143; VIX: 16

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN