Non-farm payrolls have come in below forecasts over the past two months as worker shortages appeared to restrict the pace of the pandemic recovery.
Consensus forecasts: Change in non-farm payrolls: 700,000 (vs. 559,000 in May); Unemployment rate: 5.7% (vs. 5.8% last month); Average hourly earnings: 0.4% M/M (vs. 0.5% in May), or 3.7% Y/Y (vs. 2.0%).
8:30 Non-farm payrolls
8:30 Goods and Services Trade
10:00 Factory Orders
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price continued it’s slow upward trek to new all-time high exceeding 3 Day Cycle target. Volumes continue to be light and with a low VIX (15) favors the bulls. Range was 26 handles on 962k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4284. BIG Event today ahead of the long July 4th holiday is the Non-Farm Payrolls. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4312, initially targets 4322 – 4325 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4312, initially targets 4300 – 4295 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4307 PVA Low Edge = 4293 Prior POC = 4301
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4338; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4288; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4290; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4342; 10 Day Average True Range 30; VIX: 15.35
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 14525. Prior range was 135 handles on 431k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14558 PVA Low Edge = 14515 Prior POC = 14544
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14606, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14635 – 14655 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14606, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14560 – 14540 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14639; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14475; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14548; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14774; 10 Day Average True Range: 125; VIX: 15.35
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN