Futures linked to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are hanging close to the flatline following a big week for the major averages, which notched fresh record highs in the wake of the U.S. jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls for June showed a strong gain of 850K on Friday, but there appeared to be enough concerns to keep the Fed from tapering its bond purchases (for now). While many expect the stock market gains to continue into the second half of 2020, others are more cautious.
9:45 PMI Composite Final
10:00 ISM Service Index
12:30 PM Investor Movement Index
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This Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): This pre-holiday session saw an uptrend develop which pushed index to new all-time-highs following NFP Report. VIX with a 15 handle. Range was 39 handles on 886k contracts exchanged.
Note: Cycle Day 2 (CD2): This session was the holiday, as RTH was closed…Range was 13 handles on 93047 contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently near all-time highs as trading desks will remain under-staffed with most traders still enjoying the long holiday period. Volumes are expected to continue sub-par. We’ll mark this day as a “wild-card” as cycle objectives have been met and exceeded. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 4233, initially targets 4346 – 4348 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 4333, initially targets 4320 – 4315 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4342 PVA Low Edge = 4320 Prior POC = 4336
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4358; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4326; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4325; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4342; 10 Day Average True Range 22; VIX: 15.85
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…We’ll mark this day as a “wild-card”, as cycle objectives have been fulfilled. Prior range was only 215 handles on 373k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 14713 PVA Low Edge = 14683 Prior POC = 14686
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14675, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14722 – 14754 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14675, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14633 – 14615 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 14784; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14631; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14629; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14774; 10 Day Average True Range: 113; VIX: 15.85
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN